Forecasting tool

Eagle Hill Consulting has launched a groundbreaking new market indicator that provides employers with early signals of U.S. workers’ likelihood to leave or stay at their job. The Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index signals that employers likely can expect more employees to leave their jobs during the first six months of 2024.

These findings are on the heels of the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that found the number of U.S. workers quitting their jobs experienced a historic reduction in the third quarter of 2023, the largest quarter-over-quarter decline since the second quarter of 2020, the beginning of the pandemic.

Read more about the Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index findings.

“This groundbreaking new index is a first-of-a-kind leading indicator for employers when it comes to the likelihood that workers will leave or stay put in their jobs,” says Melissa Jezior, president and chief executive officer of Eagle Hill Consulting.

“Already, we’re seeing that the first two quarters of 2024 could be marked by higher employee departures. This is largely driven by dips in employee confidence in their organization’s future and leadership, as well as how they experience their organization’s culture. The Employee Retention Index offers employers an early signal that now is the time to engage with the workers they want to keep.”

Each month, the new Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index tracks sentiment of U.S. workers across four proven drivers of worker retention. As the Employee Retention Index increases, it signals an increase in retention in the next six months. As the Employee Retention Index decreases, it signals to employers that workers are more likely to leave their jobs, and organizations can expect more turnover in the next six months. The Index comes as employers continue to face a number of chronic workforce issues – a shrinking workforce, high levels of worker burnout, and increased workplace needs and demands from employees.

This first-of-a-kind, proprietary index forecasts shifts in workforce retention based upon ongoing employee opinion surveys on factors that directly correlate with employees’ intentions to make job moves:

1. The Organizational Confidence Indicator measures how confident employees are in their organization’s future and leadership.

2. The Culture Indicator looks at how employee sentiment about their workplace culture, connections, and whether they feel valued and recognized.

3. The Compensation Indicator measures how employees view their compensation, benefits, and ability to grow their compensation at their organization.

4. The Job Market Opportunity Indicator measures how employees perceive external prospects for employment and job security in the near term.

Key takeaways of the most recent results are as follows:

• The Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index fell 3.2 points in the fourth quarter of 2023, down to 94.5. The decline continues the Index’s retreat from the first quarter of 2023. This downward trend signals employees are more likely to leave their jobs, and employers can expect increasing attrition through mid-2024.

• The Organizational Confidence indicator, indicative of workers’ confidence in their organization’s stability and leadership, fell 5.8 points in the fourth quarter of 2023. Organizational Confidence is the most pessimistic of the indicators in the fourth quarter.

• The Culture indicator, indicative of workers’ satisfaction with cultural elements like connection, meaning and recognition, fell 2.7 points in the fourth quarter of 2023.

• The Compensation indicator, indicative of workers’ perception of their compensation and expectations of future growth, rebounded and rose to 2.5 points in the fourth quarter of 2023.

• The Job Market Opportunity indicator, reflecting perceptions about job security and the jobs market remains unchanged.

• Though the Employee Retention Index signals increasing attrition in the months ahead, there is some good news. The indicators where workers feel most pessimistic—organizational culture and confidence—are the two areas where employers can most readily intervene and drive positive impact.

“Understanding employee sentiment at a deep level has evolved into a competitive asset as many industries and government agencies continue to face labor shortages. With this new market indicator, employers have forward-looking insights to help proactively implement strategies to retain employees before they face attrition problems,” says Jezior.

She adds, “The Index isn’t a one-size-fits-all for employers. Organizations can use the Employee Retention Index to benchmark their organization and pinpoint their strengths and weakness. In doing so, employers can assess and make changes to ensure their workforce is motivated, engaged, and aligned with the organizational mission.”

Index results will be released on a quarterly basis, including an annual summary report. Conducted by Ipsos, the Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index is a nationally representative sample of adults ages 18 and older who are employed full-time or part-time on a range of workforce topics. Survey data is collected on a monthly basis, which commenced in December 2022. The most recent data was collected from Dec. 1-4, 2023.