Cautious, Maybe, But Optimism Nonetheless

Here’s a nugget of encouraging insight plucked from Pembroke Consulting’s latest research: Wholesale distribution industry revenues will exhibit healthy growth in 2004 — revenues are forecast to increase 5.6 percent. That is perhaps the most heartening statistical tidbit you’ll find in the recently released book 2004 Economic Forecast, a joint effort of renowned industry expert Adam Fein of Pembroke Consulting and economy.com. (The book is published by, and is available at, NAW.)

This news is music to the ears of most in the distribution industry who have withstood a rough couple of years, due mainly to the stagnant economy. Positive-sounding forecasts or not, the economy’s effects are still top-of-mind among distributors, and we heard that loud and clear when we surveyed them in October to get their reflections on 2003, as well as predictions for the coming year.

For the most part, the distributors we surveyed were optimistic, but conservative in their predictions for business growth in 2004. Many see light at the end of the tunnel, despite some lingering shadows (margins bore the brunt of the damage caused by the downturn).

Our survey didn’t end there. We talked with distributors about a range of hot-button issues and predictions: mergers and acquisitions, customers, technology and employee issues, to name a few. Don’t miss the exclusive summary in “Check Points.”

SM features forecasts for the coming year in our December issue on an annual basis. Through our coverage, we aim to give our readers the opportunity to gather intelligence before launching into a new year. We hope we have provided some check points to gauge business relative to your peers. Perhaps the feedback will help you arrive at where you want to be a year from now.

This issue also looks at ’03 developments in the green cleaning movement. “Green Gains Momentum,” examines green cleaning and purchasing milestones reached in 2003.