Stocking supplies for inclement weather is one of the biggest inventory challenges distributors face. A mild winter can leave ice melt sitting stagnant on warehouse shelves while a surprise snowstorm can decimate supplies, resulting in a potential loss of business and customers.
For many suppliers, ice melt sales in 2023 were sluggish, begging the question, “What will the winter of 2024 bring, and what should distributors and their customers do to prepare?”
Mark Arthofer, certified snow professional and president of Skyline Salt Solutions, Dubuque, Iowa, acknowledges the difficulty with speculating how much ice melt to stock — particularly for his contractor customers who prefer to buy on demand.
“Contractors don’t necessarily commit to taking their volume, which puts suppliers such as myself in an awkward position,” he says. “The question is how much volume should you bring in, because it costs money to put it on a pad and tarp it. Once you do that, you take the chance of losing some of that salt to weather.”
For Arthofer, there are no clear-cut answers. Instead, he tries to “read the tea leaves and reach a happy medium” based on weather forecasts, trends and averages, as well as his understanding of the market and his customers.
Meteorological Musings
One of the resources distributors and their customers can turn to for predicting the weather is the Farmers’ Almanac. Jason Falvey, sales consultant for Imperial Dade, Jersey City, New Jersey, shares that one of the company’s purchasers relies on the publication every year — and so far, it hasn’t let him down.
In circulation since 1818, the Farmers’ Almanac provides long-range weather predictions based on a mathematical and astronomical formula. Followers claim the almanac’s forecasts are up to 85 percent accurate; however, some say its accuracy rate is closer to 50 percent.
In addition to consulting the almanac for long-term predictions (forecasts are calculated two years in advance), distributors are apt to rely on short-term local weather forecasts, as well as government weather services when stocking supplies for impending weather.
Like many distributors, Arthofer keeps careful watch of weather patterns in his area and relies on averages to prepare for the upcoming winter.
“I’ve been in the snow business for more than 25 years, and during that time I’ve kept track of the winters and weather events,” he says. “Mother nature averages herself out over time, so I try to base everything on the National Weather Service’s climatology reports.”
Arthofer also researches climate conditions on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) website. NOAA generates 30-year and 15-year climate normals that can help distributors predict weather conditions in the near future, helping to so they can stock ice melt products accordingly.
Know the Customer
In addition to constant weather-watching, distributors rely on frequent communication with customers and manufacturers to ensure adequate stock of ice melt supplies all season long.
“For me, it starts with relationships, because with relationships you have an opportunity for better communication and consistency,” says Bill Allen, territory manager for Fagan Sanitary Supply, West Elizabeth, Pennsylvania. “Having a good relationship with customers allows you to ask questions and get honest answers that help you prepare for upcoming orders.”
Allen recommends gleaning as much information as possible about customers’ snow removal programs and gauging their needs for the upcoming winter by asking questions, such as ‘how much leftover stock do you have from the previous year?’ And ‘have you been asked to apply ice melt to more areas?’
Distributors should also determine whether customers have new employees applying the product.
“Not everybody tosses down ice melt the same way,” Allen says. “If someone uses three bags for an area and someone else uses two bags for the same area, it may be the difference between 100 and 150 bags over the course of a season.”
Allen has firsthand knowledge of such discrepancies: In his prior career, he worked on a snow removal crew and applied ice melt sparingly to prevent it from being tracked into the building. In contrast, his partner “freewheeled it like it was confetti at a New Year’s Eve parade.”
Distributors should also look for discrepancies in ordering patterns and question customers to determine the reason for the changes. Since the pandemic, many of Fagan Sanitary Supply’s school district customers have switched to remote learning during inclement weather, which has affected the amount of ice melt they purchase.
“[Schools] used to have a two-hour delay when there was bad weather, and they would use that time to prepare the building,” Allen notes. “Now, they just close the building for the day, and they may do that five to 10 days a year. It’s important to ask questions, simply because it does matter.”
Once distributors have an accurate assessment of customers’ ice melt needs, they can lock in orders by offering preseason discounts. In September and October, Imperial Dade brings in an initial order of about 1,500 to 2,500 bags of ice melt per brand.
“It generally doesn’t snow in September; however, we start that ordering process early and try to stay ahead of that next big eight- to 10-inch snowfall on Thanksgiving,” says Falvey. “We get the word out to our customers saying that there’s a savings on these — usually 25 cents a bag — if ordered by October 31.”
Arthofer starts selling ice melt as early as June, which transfers some of the risk of being saddled with surplus inventory to his customers.
“The heat of the summer is when you start talking about the cold of the winter,” he advises.
Selecting the Right Ice Melt Products